The bond market, a key indicator of economic health, displayed positive signs on Friday as the widely followed gauge of impending US recessions reached its least negative level in two months. This was mainly attributed to the latest producer prices data, which confirmed expectations of a continued drop in inflation.
Yield Curve and Market Analysis
The 2-year yield (BX:TMUBMUSD02Y) experienced a significant decline, reaching approximately 4.16% during New York afternoon trading. This placed it just 20 basis points above the benchmark 10-year rate (BX:TMUBMUSD10Y), which stood at 3.96%.
Ideally, the 10-year yield should exceed that of its 2-year counterpart, resulting in an upward sloping Treasury yield curve. However, the current scenario has led to an inverted curve, with the spread between the two rates entering negative territory. On Friday, the 2s10s spread briefly touched minus 18.8 basis points, marking its least negative level since November 1.
These developments indicate a shift towards stability in the bond market, offering some reassurance regarding the overall economic outlook. Investors and analysts will be closely monitoring future movements to determine if this positive trend will continue.
The Changing Dynamics of the Bond Market
The bond market's behavior is often a reliable indicator of an impending recession in the United States. Typically, as a recession approaches, the 2y/10y spread becomes less negative, reflecting market expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. However, the current situation differs from past trends. Lawrence Gillum, Chief Fixed-Income Strategist at LPL Financial, based in Charlotte, North Carolina, suggests that the recent un-inverting curve and rate-cut expectations are driven more by disinflation rather than economic growth prospects.
Rather than viewing the disinversion as a sign of an impending recession due to rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the focus is now on disinflation and a faster-than-anticipated return to 2% inflation. Gillum emphasizes that the narrative has shifted and the Fed will likely begin cutting rates regardless of a recession, in response to decreasing inflation levels.
Even amidst geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have the potential to reignite inflationary pressures, the Treasury curve shows signs of disinversion. Surprisingly, this led to a broad decline in Treasury yields due to bull-steepening trades. In these trades, the shorter-term market experiences a more significant rally compared to the longer-term end. As a result, on Friday, the 2-year yield exhibited a greater decrease than the 10-year yield.
Throughout the first half of 2023, the 2y/10y spread declined into triple-digit negative territory, largely driven by concerns regarding the consequences of the Fed's interest rate-hike campaign.
Market Indicators Suggest No Imminent U.S. Recession
According to strategist Gillum, current market trends indicate that a U.S. recession is not on the horizon. One key indicator is the fed funds trading, which demonstrates that traders are not expecting a significant economic downturn. Gillum explains that if a recession were anticipated, traders would be pricing in more than the current prediction of 150 basis points or six quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year.
As of Friday, the fed funds futures traders estimated a 33% probability of six quarter-point cuts by December and a 37.8% likelihood of seven reductions. These figures support the notion that the market is not anticipating a recession anytime soon.
Overall, these market indicators suggest that the current economic conditions are stable and that any worries about a U.S. recession might be premature.
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