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UK Consumers Show Increasing Optimism in December

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Clarence L. Polk

• December 15, 2023

According to a recent survey from research group GfK, UK consumers are feeling more optimistic as the vital festive shopping season approaches. The survey, released on Friday, revealed that GfK's Consumer Confidence Barometer increased by two points to reach minus 22 in December. This marks a continuation of the rebound that began in November, coming just slightly below the predicted reading of minus 21.

While the index remains in negative territory, there is a clear upswing in consumer optimism, as highlighted by Joe Staton, GfK's client strategy director. Staton notes that despite the ongoing challenges such as high interest rates and price rises affecting disposable income, the movement towards positive territory in terms of personal finances is an encouraging sign for the year ahead.

This positive trend in consumer sentiment bodes well for the upcoming festive shopping season, providing hope for increased spending. As the UK enters this critical time of year, it is likely that consumers will be more willing to open their wallets and support both online and offline retailers.

Overall, the survey results indicate a promising outlook for the UK economy, suggesting a glimmer of light amid the still challenging conditions caused by the cost-of-living crisis. As we await the year to come, it will be interesting to see how this growing optimism translates into consumer behavior and its impact on the wider market.

Consumer Confidence Shows Signs of Recovery

Despite the nation's overall confidence remaining in negative territory, there are signs of optimism regarding personal finances for the next 12 months. This represents a notable improvement compared to the previous year, as reported by Staton. The GfK barometer for December 2022 recorded a more pronounced negative reading of minus 42.

Components of the index, which measure sentiment towards personal and general financial situations, as well as confidence in making significant purchases, all showed an increase in December. This apparent improvement in mood among UK consumers raises hopes for a boost in end-of-year sales, which is a critical period for retailers in the country. Although retail sales experienced a decline in October, according to the latest data released last month, some economists remain optimistic, suggesting that consumers may be saving their spending for the year-end.

A rise in consumer spending would provide much-needed relief to the broader UK economy. Recent figures show that gross domestic product fell more than anticipated in October, raising concerns among economists that the country could be on the brink of a recession unless there is a strong recovery in the final months of this year and throughout 2024. A technical recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

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