According to a survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal, U.S. crude-oil stockpiles are anticipated to have increased from the previous week, as indicated in data scheduled for release on Wednesday by the Department of Energy.
An average of estimates from 10 analysts and traders reveals that U.S. commercial crude-oil stockpiles are expected to have risen by 1.3 million barrels for the week ending on August 4th. While four forecasters are predicting a decrease, six anticipate a week-on-week increase. The expectations range from a decrease of 1.5 million barrels to an increase of 5.2 million barrels.
Factors Influencing the Projections
Despite preliminary data from the DOE showing the transfer of one million barrels of crude oil from the commercial side to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, there is still an overall expectation of a rise in stockpiles. This transfer was a part of the government's efforts to refill emergency stockpiles that had been depleted over the past few years.
The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration is closely watched for its inventory data and is set to release the latest figures at 10:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday.
Gasoline Inventories Projections
Analysts suggest that gasoline inventories are likely to fall by 300,000 barrels in comparison to the previous week. The estimates for gasoline inventories range from a decrease of 2 million barrels to an increase of 1.7 million barrels.
Stocks of Distillates
According to forecasts, the stocks of distillates, which mostly consist of diesel fuel, are expected to increase by 200,000 barrels from the previous week. Various forecasts range from a decrease of 1 million barrels to an increase of 1.6 million barrels.
Forecasted refinery use is likely to have climbed by 0.3 percentage points from the previous week, reaching 93.0%. Forecasts range from a decrease of 0.7 percentage points to an increase of 1 percentage point. It is worth noting that two analysts did not provide a forecast.
Here is a summary of the forecasts provided by various analysts:
| Analyst | Crude | Gasoline | Distillates | Refinery Use | | ----------------------------- | ----- | -------- | ----------- | ------------ | | Again Capital | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | -0.7 | | Commodity Research Group | -1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | | Confluence Investment Management | 4 | -2 | 1 | 1 | | DTN | 1.2 | -0.8 | -0.5 | 0.4 | | Excel Futures | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | -0.5 | | Spartan Capital Securities | 1.7 | -1.3 | 1.6 | n/f | | Mizuho | 3 | -1 | -0.5 | -0.3 | | Price Futures Group | -1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | | Ritterbusch and Associates | -0.9 | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.7 | | Tradition Energy | -0.2 | -1.3 | -0.3 | n/f | | Average | 1.3 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
Note: The numbers provided are in millions of barrels, except for refinery use which is measured in percentage points.